War exacerbates Iran’s water crisis
The Looming Water Crisis in Iran
A missile strike by Israel on the South Pars region in March 2023 raised serious concerns about the safety of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, located near the Persian Gulf. According to reports, an Israeli missile fell just a few hundred meters from the facility, sparking fears of a potential nuclear disaster on the scale of Chernobyl. Even if the plant itself remains unharmed, the ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States is expected to worsen Iran’s already critical water shortage.
The Iranian government has warned the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) could be targeted as part of Israel’s strategy to weaken Iran’s economy by destroying its energy infrastructure. The location of the plant along the Gulf coast poses a unique risk: if nuclear fuel or reactor cooling fluid were to leak into the water, it could contaminate the entire region. This would have severe consequences for the Gulf countries, which rely heavily on desalination plants for their fresh water supply. A disruption in these plants could lead to a humanitarian crisis, forcing millions to leave the area.
Despite the current lack of direct damage to the Bushehr plant, the war is exacerbating Iran’s long-standing water issues. The country is already facing a severe drought, with reservoirs in some of the most populated provinces dropping below 10% capacity. Officials have warned that if “day zero” arrives—when there is no water left—the capital might need to be evacuated.
Climate Change and Infrastructure Failures
Iran’s water crisis is not solely the result of war; it is also deeply rooted in decades of mismanagement and environmental degradation. Overbuilding and poor maintenance of over 600 dams have led to silted and leaking reservoirs, leaving the country with critically low water storage. Climate change is accelerating the problem, with rising temperatures and extreme weather events making droughts more frequent and severe.
According to data from the World Weather Attribution, years with very little rainfall are now ten times more likely than they were before industrialization. This has placed additional strain on a system already struggling under the weight of political corruption and inefficient resource allocation. The development of water infrastructure has often been driven by political favoritism rather than long-term planning, creating what some call the “water mafia”—a network of powerful individuals who control access to water resources.
Agricultural Mismanagement and Resource Depletion
Agriculture accounts for nearly 90% of Iran’s water use, but poor policy decisions have made the situation worse. The government has promoted water-intensive crops and attempted to achieve food self-sufficiency, despite the fact that many of these crops are not suitable for the arid climate. This has led to the expansion of farming into some of the driest regions, further depleting groundwater reserves and draining aquifers.
The reliance on agriculture has created a cycle of overuse and depletion that is difficult to reverse. With the short rainy season already over and summer heat on the way, the situation is expected to deteriorate further. In 2023, Iran experienced one of the hottest summers on record, with temperatures reaching 50°C. Climate models suggest that this year could be just as bad, if not worse.
Desalination and Regional Tensions
While Iran relies far less on desalination than its neighbors, the recent attack on a desalination plant in Qeshm, an island in the Strait of Hormuz, has raised new concerns. The U.S. was accused of carrying out the attack, although it denied the allegations. In response, Iran struck a water facility in Bahrain, heightening fears of a broader conflict that could target all desalination plants in the region. Such an outcome would make the Gulf effectively uninhabitable.
The Middle East is home to over 40% of the world’s desalination capacity, but Iran’s dependence on it is minimal. Only about 3% of its drinking water comes from desalination, compared to over 50% in Saudi Arabia and nearly 90% in Kuwait. This means that Iran’s water problems are not due to a lack of natural water sources, but rather the poor state of its infrastructure and management practices.
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